America has two main questions about this
conflict: First, What is Russia
doing? Is it engaging in imperial expansion, a land-grab, which it is likely to
try again with Ukraine,
or in a just defense of an ally? Second,
Should Georgia be included in Nato?
My
first reaction to the news of the Russian army's entrance into Georgia was to
view it as an alarming act of aggression, an attempt to begin rolling back the
loss of territory and people that began with the break-up of the Soviet
Union. As I have studied the situation
further, however, in the few sources that seem available, I have come to feel
this interpretation perhaps does an injustice to Russia. It should be noted that most
of these wars of independence in the Balkans and the Caucasus
between peoples who have lived together for centuries have their origin in
hundreds of year of mutual discrimination. When one side has been in power,
they have used it to poke a stick in the eye of the other side Unless I
am mistaken, a tragic misunderstanding appears to be brewing. The West became
conditioned to fear Russia
over a very long time. It would be dreadfully ironic if just at a time when there
is other
side gains power and returns the favor to the first side.
In
this case, the Ossetians, having been lumped in with the Georgians several
centuries ago, have been trying by armed
force to break away from them ever since.
They made a big effort in 1922, but lost out. They tried again in 1990,
and again in 1991 after the Soviet break-up, with the same result. In 1992 Russia
persuaded both sides to accept a cease-fire, and Russian troops were put in
place to act as peacekeepers between them. In 2003, however, the current
president of Georgia,
educated in the US, was elected on promises he would bring Ossetia back into the Georgian fold. In 2004 fighting
duly broke out again. In 2006 the Ossetians voted "almost unanimously"
for independence from Georgia.
But the president of Georgia
was not enthusiastic about this result.
In early August the Georgian army invaded Ossetia's
unpronounceable capital. Russia
stepped in to stop them. President Putin
stated yesterday that the Russian action was an expression of Christianity,
sacrificing one's life for one's friend.
Perhaps I am excessively sentimental, but I felt this statement
could
only with difficulty be dismissed as cynical in its entirety. Unless I
am mistaken, a tragic misunderstanding appears to brewing. The West
became conditioned to fear Russia over a very long time. It would be
dreadfully ironic if just at a time when there is no longer reason to
fear, the old fear should reassert itself. Perhaps what we mainly have to fear in this
case, as FDR said, is fear itself.
If
this interpretation is correct, and Russia
is, after all, behaving in a reasonably responsible manner, then the policy of
unilaterally bringing Nato right up to Russia's front door has to be
judged insensitive. Given the threat from the nearby Muslim world, it makes
sense to expand Nato, but only with Russia's agreement. It is much to our interest to be friends with
Russia.
Lacking Russia's
agreement, we should remain contentedly
where we are until such agreement is forthcoming. |