 | Professor of Economics at Temple University, formerly Dean of the Fox School of Business
Notes on the Economy
April 24, 2008
1.
In less than a year, we'll have a new CEO running USA Inc., our 14
trillion dollar enterprise. Changing CEO's is expensive, moving the
old staff out, bringing in the new and teaching them where the
bathrooms are. Overall, $8 million is budgeted for the Bush
transition. Once done, he will receive about $400,000 per year to
cover his expenses and retirement. His dad does even better, receiving
about $800,000 a year. The top dog, however, is Clinton, receiving
$1.2 million annually, which includes $500,000 for his office rent in
Harlem, $200,000 in retirement pay, and $80,000 for his phone bill.
If
this sounds high, it's not. Private sector CEO's of even modestly
large companies receive much more compensation, even including the
rent. We don't pay well for running the largest business in the world,
the U.S. economy. Hmmmm, maybe that's the problem!
2. Some
presidential candidates have decided that Exxon is a symbol of what is
wrong with America. Recent ads complain of Exxon's 40 billion in
profits as if Exxon is some evil entity. First of all, Exxon is not a
person, it is millions of owners owning over 5 billion shares in their
investment portfolios. Vanguard holds over 160 million shares for its
clients, Fidelity over 100 million shares. Taking Exxon's profits for
hair-brained government schemes will just mean millions of people will
have to work longer to accumulate their retirement assets. And,
doesn't return on investment count? 40 billion may not represent a
particularly good return on the capital invested in the company. Size
is not the issue, the percentage return is what counts.
And the
government takes over 40 cents a gallon in tax, far more than the
profit per gallon made by refiners. And the government doesn't make
any gas for you.
Hopefully voters will catch on to this sham.
The last thing we need is government confiscating private sector
profits and driving stock prices down. No help for our retirement and
no help for the economy.
3. The plan to take Clear Channel, a
large media company, private appears to have fallen through. The banks
that were going to loan investors the $20 billion needed to buy all the
public stock back decided they didn't have enough capital to do the
deal due to losses on their mortgage portfolios.
However, I
can't see why this matters much. The company is running now as a
publicly owned business, taking it private won't change that and it
won't produce any new jobs or GDP. It does mean that some very highly
paid investment bankers won't get their fees, but what else will change
at Clear Channel? Not much that I can see. This is much ado about
nothing.
If banks feel they don't have $20 billion to lend to a
private company to buy Clear Channel, that's fine. It is not the
beginning of the end, just the reflection of financial markets heading
back to a more normal credit environment.
4. The news media,
reporting on Federal Reserve actions, keeps talking about breathing new
life into the housing market. Let's be clear, over the past few years,
we built a million homes and condos more than we need to house our
population. So, even if the Fed lends builders free money, they are
not going to build yet another new house that nobody will buy. It's
like playing musical chairs, but with too many chairs. As the players
move from one chair to another, they leave an empty chair behind.
There are not enough families to live in the houses we built. Only
time will solve this problem, population growth, maybe increased
multiple home ownership among baby boomers, maybe foreign owners. The
point is that cutting interest rates won't get rid of the excess supply
of houses.
Cheap money also won't get firms to invest in new
equipment and expansion or hire more workers with the Fed warning about
a recession.
Finally, cheap money won't get the big Wall Street
firms to lend to each other to finance those mortgage assets. Poof,
Bear Stearns disappears.
In the meantime, inflation is
getting worse. More business owners cite inflation as their top
business problem than at any time since 1982. That's a warning.
5.
Recently Bill Gates expressed some doubt about the ability of markets
and capitalism to help the poor around the world. He was distressed
about the poverty that still existed in many countries.
However
you measure it, poverty cannot be eliminated overnight, not in a
decade, not in a generation. But, as the United Nations reported
recently, countries that have adopted capitalism in some form have
prospered. Not everyone is lifted out of poverty, but more and more
are. Lexus is building a new plant just to serve demand in China where
a middle class is rapidly developing.
What Mr. Gates should have
observed is that poverty is still pervasive in countries where the
leadership does not allow capitalism to flourish. Dictators and
despots and government bureaucrats prevent capitalism from doing it's
good work, keeping citizens in poverty. Given the opportunity to
improve their situation, individuals will succeed, as long as they have
the freedom to do so.
6. Our new police chief recently went
to Washington to ask for federal money to hire more police officers and
improve our police stations. Of course he should try to get the
funding if it is available. But this illustrates why federal spending
is out of control. Everyone thinks that Washington should solve all of
our problems.
Police department needs in Philadelphia are not a
national problem. It's a Philadelphia problem. A few years ago, our
governor went to Washington for snow removal money. Please! Snow
removal is a local problem, not a national one. But that's the game.
State and local officials put on their knee pads and go to Washington
to pay homage to Congress and try to get someone else's money to pay
for local problems. So California tries to get Pennsylvania to pay for
earthquake damage, Midwestern governors try to get Pennsylvanians to
pay for flood damage and so on by going to Washington to get some of
our tax dollars. Congress loves the power, but is a most inefficient
middleman. Why send money to Washington and then ask for it back?
Congress can't solve local problems. Let's keep our tax money here and
solve our own local problems.
7. America's farmers are the best
in the world. We export large amounts of food to countries who cannot
grow food as cheaply. So why does Congress have to give tens of
billions of dollars to our farmers? Corn and wheat prices are at
record levels. But between 2003 and 2005, the government gave corn
farmers nearly 20 billion in subsidies -- 7 billion to cotton growers,
4 billion to wheat farmers, 1 billion to peanut growers, and the list
goes on. In many years, subsidies account for substantially more than
half of farm income.
Even worse, the so called family farm
doesn't benefit. Two thirds of the subsidies go to the wealthiest 10
percent of farmers, including agribusiness. And subsidies to crops
like cotton, which we can't grow efficiently, make it hard for less
developed countries to earn income growing the crop. So taxpayers
money is paid to cotton growers who make life difficult for poor
farmers in less developed areas to make a living. It doesn't make
sense. Government can help protect farmers from the vicissitudes of
the weather, but the current program is clearly out of bounds.
8.
For two decades, I have commented periodically on the fortunes, usually
misfortunes, of Philadelphia Gas Works. It is a classic example of why
countries in which government runs business do so poorly. Government
can't run businesses well. There is no incentive to be efficient and
take care of taxpayers and their money.
The Parking Authority
saga is just another point in case. Employment is bloated and promised
support for our school system has been squandered through patronage and
inefficiency. And now we find out that the workers are bleeding the
Authority through worker compensation claims. The Inquirer has
discovered that working at the Parking Authority is far riskier than
working in the Fire or Police Departments. Parking Authority workers
file twice as many injury claims and on average receive 50 percent more
per injury claim than firefighters and nearly twice as much as police
officers. Hey, how about letting government take care of healthcare?
They do such a good job with all these other businesses.
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